In his podcast addressing the markets today, Louis Navellier offered the following commentary.
The Atlanta Fed is now estimating 2.4% annual GDP growth for the third quarter. The Atlanta Fed cites the fact that personal income rose 0.4% in August and a shrinking trade deficit as the primary reasons for its upbeat third-quarter GDP estimate.
Specifically, the shrinking trade deficit is now accounting for 2.2% of the Atlanta Fed’s 2.4% estimate for annual third-quarter GDP growth.
Fund Manager Profile: Kris Sidial Of Tail Risk Fund Ambrus Group
A decade ago, no one talked about tail risk hedge funds, which were a minuscule niche of the market. However, today many large investors, including pension funds and other institutions, have mandates that require the inclusion of tail risk protection. In a recent interview with ValueWalk, Kris Sidial of tail risk fund Ambrus Group, a Read More
Q2 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
Energy Bets Payoff
I am expecting energy bets to pay off handsomely in the upcoming months. As bullish as I am on energy prices, I am out West this week and am truly shocked that gasoline prices are already hitting record levels as the switch from summer gasoline to oxygenated winter gasoline causes refinery shutdowns and supply glitches. As a result, refineries are expected to continue to post very strong earnings through the fourth quarter.
OPEC is scheduled to meet on Wednesday where it will discuss more production cuts, so crude oil prices are up sharply this week in anticipation of these cuts.
Furthermore, the Biden Administration’s manipulation of the crude oil market is anticipated to end soon, since the release of 1 million barrels per day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is expected to end after the midterm elections.
The primary reason that the prices at the pump moderated in recent months is that the Biden Administration was purposely manipulating crude oil prices by releasing reserves from the SPR. I am sure that after the midterm elections, the Biden Administration will have to start refilling the SPR since it is now at the lowest level in approximately four decades.
Porsche Over Tesla
The green energy revolution remains constrained by supply glitches and soaring battery component costs. Tesla delivered a record 343,000 vehicles in the third quarter, but analysts were expecting 364,660, so the stock was hit with profit taking.
Tesla actually produced 365,000 vehicles in the third quarter, so they were in line with analyst estimates, but some vehicles were still in transit. Wedbush called Tesla’s delivery shortfall a “logistical speed bump” and I would agree that the company is dealing with supply glitches better than most auto manufacturers.
However, I would recommend that you buy Porsche AG (ETR:P911) over Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) since Porsche trades at less than a third of the forecasted earnings of Tesla and has bigger operating margins. I should add that Porsche fell below its IPO price and is a good near-term buy.
The 2008 financial crisis was caused by the failure of credit default swaps (CDS) at AIG. Now there are rising concerns that Credit Suisse will become another AIG due to its CDS business.
An internal memo from Credit Suisse Chief Executive Ulrich Körner told its employees late last week that the bank was at a critical moment, so rumors are swirling.
If bond yields keep rising, it will undoubtedly put more pressure on Credit Suisse. The Swiss National Bank is expected to raise its key interest rate another 0.75% in December, but it will be interesting if the Swiss central bank has to intervene to save Credit Suisse.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) announced that its manufacturing index slipped to 50.9 in September, down from 52.8 in August. Since any reading over 50 signals an expansion, the manufacturing sector is still growing, but at a slower pace.
Some troubling signs were that the new orders component fell to 47.1 in September (down from 51.3 in August) and new export orders component declined to 47.8 (down from 49.4 in August).
If new orders and exports are falling, it appears that as global GDP growth stalls, it is also impeding U.S. manufacturing activity. Furthermore, a strong U.S dollar is also likely hindering U.S. exports.
Americans and Japanese make the biggest online purchases. Americans spend an average of $109 per online purchase – $16 more than the global average.
The U.S. is followed closely by Japan, where online shoppers spend $106 on an average order. Canada and Germany are also above the global average of $93. Source: ecommerceDB. See the full story here.
Image and article originally from www.valuewalk.com. Read the original article here.